By Robert Clampett
A look ahead at the new year brings foreboding to economies worldwide, as high inflation, rising interest rates and fears of pandemics continue for nations worldwide.
With major central banks planning to raise borrowing costs hoping to tamp down inflation, the risks of a worldwide recession looms ever larger.
According to reporting by Bloomberg News,2022 saw the fastest inflation rate, largely due to Covid-19 and worldwide supply chain stagnation, since the recessionary years of the 1980s.
Despite concerns of debilitating economic contraction, central bankers are signaling plans to raise borrowing rates incrementally in an all-out attempt to stifle inflation. “There’s a growing sense among central banks that they’d rather risk doing too much （than too little） Harris said, pointing out that last year central banks underplayed price pressures in countries struggling with the pandemic prompting inflation to get out of control.
Officials are vowing to continue to fight growing inflation with rate hikes as economies slow and supply chains revive. “If 2022 was a year of inflation surge, falling equity market multiples,2023 is going to be a year about the macroeconomic cycle” HSBC Management global chief strategist said, according to the Bloomberg report.
Complicating things in Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused energy costs to soar, plunging economies in the continent and the United Kingdom into full-bore recession.
The jobs market is seen as a key measure in the eventual easing of borrowing rates. “The overall message for 2023 seems clear, central banks will push back on higher risky assets until the labor market starts to turn,” said George Saravelos, global head of foreign-exchange research at Deutsche Bank AG.
However, there are signs of optimism by next year’s end. Many U.S. analysts predict that inflation will dampen as the pandemic’s effects wane and the job market rate increases, along with higher wages expected by mid-year. As commodities and services return to normal, the end of 2023 is expected to trigger an economic upswing with now unseen opportunities that should last for years.